Over-shelved · defensive intel
$736K
of scan revenue sits behind more shelf than it earns — at Walmart, West region.
At six retailer–region cells, your authorized shelf runs ahead of your scan sales. Walmart's West region leads: 9.0% of your slots on 6.7% of your dollars — an index of 1.34. A category manager computes their own version of this number from syndicated data. See it first, and walk into the reset with the answer already in hand.
Where the shelf runs ahead of the sales
Six conventional-grocery and mass cells, ranked by the scan revenue over-covered.
| Retailer · region | Index | Scan revenue over-covered |
|---|---|---|
| Walmart · West mass | 1.34 | |
| Walmart · Southwest mass | 1.34 | |
| Sprouts · West grocery | 1.34 | |
| Sprouts · Southeast grocery | 1.301 | |
| Regional Group · Northeast grocery | 1.84 | |
| Regional Group · West grocery | 1.33 | |
| Total over-covered | $1,639,997 |
Basis: retail scan revenue (CY2025). Over-covered = the scan-revenue scale by which a cell's share of authorized slots exceeds its share of scan dollars (above the 1.3 band). Cinderhaven Provisions, a synthetic dataset.
The index · shelf vs. sales
Your shelf tracks your sales in 19 of 30 cells. The other 11 miss — and they miss with a pattern.
all club (Costco)
0.7–1.3, proportional
grocery & mass
Costco is under-shelved in every region — club-normal, not an expansion order. The over-covered cells (Walmart, Sprouts, Regional Group) are where a category manager pushes back. Below: all 30 retailer–region cells, ranked by index.
Index = share of authorized slots ÷ share of scan dollars. The 0.7–1.3 band is shelf proportional to sales. n = 30 retailer–region cells, CY2025.
| Retailer · region | Slots / sales | Index | Gap ($) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Costco · West club | 1.9% / 5.7% | 0.33 | +$1,217,920 |
| Costco · Southwest club | 1.7% / 4.8% | 0.34 | +$1,024,721 |
| Costco · Northeast club | 1.7% / 3.9% | 0.44 | +$704,289 |
| Costco · Midwest club | 2.6% / 4.7% | 0.55 | +$673,014 |
| Costco · Southeast club | 1.5% / 2.6% | 0.60 | +$336,862 |
| Regional Group · Southeast grocery | 1.2% / 1.3% | 0.91 | +$38,235 |
| Whole Foods · Southeast grocery | 3.1% / 3.4% | 0.94 | +$69,403 |
| Regional Group · Midwest grocery | 1.6% / 1.6% | 1.01 | −$2,630 |
| Kroger · West grocery | 3.8% / 3.7% | 1.03 | −$40,018 |
| Kroger · Midwest grocery | 4.6% / 4.3% | 1.05 | −$71,938 |
| Whole Foods · West grocery | 3.2% / 3.0% | 1.06 | −$62,695 |
| Sprouts · Midwest grocery | 3.6% / 3.3% | 1.08 | −$88,251 |
| Kroger · Northeast grocery | 3.7% / 3.4% | 1.09 | −$101,115 |
| Sprouts · Southwest grocery | 3.4% / 3.0% | 1.12 | −$117,393 |
| Whole Foods · Midwest grocery | 4.8% / 4.3% | 1.12 | −$171,053 |
| Whole Foods · Southwest grocery | 4.3% / 3.8% | 1.13 | −$159,279 |
| Kroger · Southwest grocery | 6.0% / 5.2% | 1.14 | −$243,135 |
| Whole Foods · Northeast grocery | 3.4% / 2.9% | 1.15 | −$139,857 |
| Regional Group · Southwest grocery | 1.9% / 1.7% | 1.15 | −$80,465 |
| Walmart · Northeast mass | 3.4% / 3.0% | 1.15 | −$146,306 |
| Walmart · Southeast mass | 6.0% / 5.2% | 1.15 | −$257,872 |
| Sprouts · Northeast grocery | 2.6% / 2.3% | 1.16 | −$115,008 |
| Walmart · Midwest mass | 5.4% / 4.7% | 1.16 | −$245,280 |
| Kroger · Southeast grocery | 5.1% / 4.0% | 1.299 at the line | −$382,152 |
| Sprouts · Southeast grocery | 2.3% / 1.8% | 1.301 at the line | −$173,756 |
| Regional Group · West grocery | 0.5% / 0.3% | 1.33 | −$36,469 |
| Walmart · West mass | 9.0% / 6.7% | 1.34 | −$736,202 |
| Walmart · Southwest mass | 4.6% / 3.5% | 1.34 | −$379,455 |
| Sprouts · West grocery | 2.2% / 1.6% | 1.34 | −$177,796 |
| Regional Group · Northeast grocery | 0.9% / 0.5% | 1.84 | −$136,319 |
Gap ($) = scan-revenue scale of the mis-allocation; positive = under-shelved (expansion), negative = over-shelved. Sorted by index, low to high. Retail scan revenue, CY2025.
Which door first
Walmart's West region is the first door to defend — $736K of shelf ahead of its sales.
Every retailer–region cell, colored by the scan-revenue gap. Berry runs over-shelved — the number a category manager reaches first, and the one to walk in with. Teal runs under-shelved (all club). Grey is proportional. Filter to a channel to isolate the clean grocery story.
| Banner | W | SW | MW | NE | SE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart mass | −$736K | −$379K | −$245K | −$146K | −$258K |
| Sprouts grocery | −$178K | −$117K | −$88K | −$115K | −$174K |
| Regional Group grocery | −$36K | −$80K | −$3K | −$136K | +$38K |
| Kroger grocery | −$40K | −$243K | −$72K | −$101K | −$382K |
| Whole Foods grocery | −$63K | −$159K | −$171K | −$140K | +$69K |
| Costco club | +$1.2M | +$1.0M | +$673K | +$704K | +$337K |
Color = signed scan-revenue gap (CY2025); darker = larger. −$ over-shelved (over the 1.3 band), +$ under-shelved (under 0.7). n = 30 retailer–region cells.
Club (Costco) reads under-shelved in every region — club-normal, not an expansion order. In the map for channel awareness, out of the defensive headline.
Roadmap · client mode
What the paid engagement adds: true category Fair Share.
This demo measured your shelf against your own sales — a within-footprint index, on the doors you already stock. It is honest, and it is blind to the rest of the category: it cannot see a competitor outselling you on the same shelf, or a banner where the category runs twice the size your own sales imply. That gap is the buyer's real question.
Bring a syndicated category extract and the engagement computes true category Fair Share — your share of the category's authorized slots ÷ your share of the category's sales, per retailer and region. Not "is your shelf proportional to your sales," but "is it proportional to the category's" — the number a category manager adjudicates in the room.
The extracts it accepts — IRI, Circana, or SPINS
Category sales
Total-category dollar and unit sales by retailer × region, 52-week and latest period. The denominator each door is measured against.
Distribution
%ACV and TDP for the category and for your items, by retailer. The category's slot count — the shelf the category commands, not just the shelf you hold.
Your brand in the category
Your dollar share, unit share, and distribution inside the category definition you choose. The numerator.
Three extracts, one grain: retailer × region. The engagement maps them to the doors in this demo and recomputes every index against the full category. No category data is loaded here — this panel describes the inputs; it does not compute on them.
The engagement
Sell across three or more regions and two or more channels? The category math is worth running.
A within-footprint spread this wide means your slots and your sales already diverge across doors. Category data — a competitor's velocity, the category's true size per banner — is what turns that divergence into a number a buyer has to answer. This demo brand clears the line: five regions, three channels. If yours does too, the paid engagement prices every door against the full category, not just your own footprint.
See what the paid category engagement adds